My mission and passion is helping development organizations succeed. I believe that good management makes everyone’s life better: The staff, the stakeholders, and the managers.
Current workshops, webinars, & articles
Often businesses have what are, to some, contradictory development team goals:
- Creating delivery plans that can be counted on to support business plans;
- Employing agile methods for improving development efficiency;
The key mechanism for achieving these goals of coordinating the needs of the business with the delivery capability of an agile team is release planning: determining what features or epics can be planned for the next release. However, release planning is especially challenging for Agile teams since both the size of the effort and the team velocity have some degree of uncertainty. The Bayesian Agile Planner (BAP) is designed to facilitate release planning while fully accounting for these uncertainties.
Agile teams plan releases in terms of both large and small chunks of functionality. Large chunks are usually called features or epics. Features are used in product or system
The New Technology Revenue Prediction System
Murray Cantor, Ph.D.
To quote the late, great Yogi Berra, “It is hard to make predictions, especially about the future.”
This observation is especially true when predicting the cash flow of a business that is transitioning from the early adopter to the early majority market. During this transition, there is not the amount of data needed for applying the usual sales metrics. In this case, we need to approach the sales and revenue probabilistically. Management and investors are betting on the future revenue, and they need to know how good a bet they are making.
Briefly, given the scarcity of data and uncertainty of the sales velocity (the speed from one stage to another) and eventual value, the only way to create a prediction is to apply modern machine learning and simulation techniques to determine the probable revenues.
Read the full article here.
by Israel Gat, Murray Cantor
In our previous Advisor in this series (see “Implementing the Integrative Framework, Part III — Alignment”), we defined a modus for alignment in which the development organization executive (e.g., CTO or VP of development) is responsible for defining overall development organization goals so that the organization fulfills its role in meeting the enterprise mission. The development executive accordingly sets the corresponding top-level product strategy and overall project team goals. In parallel, the project team assumes responsibility for working to achieve these goals by innovative problem solving and/or continuing focus on efficiency. With this modus, a properly tooled company can create initial alignment (e.g., through the planning and budgeting process) and maintain it on an ongoing basis by continuing to track the measures and align the portfolio view with the project view whenever needed.
Explore the Bayesian approach to smart release planning. What features should the project lead realistically include in the next release? When the size of the effort and team velocity are uncertain, as agile methodology reminds us, how can we improve our prediction of time-to-complete? How do we better determine the likelihood of successful completion scenarios for various combinations of features? In this article, I describe how feature-stories capture uncertainty and how the history of past releases affects current beliefs and how they are used in a Bayesian approach to improving the likelihood of delivering on-time.
Articles and Presentations
Here are just a few of my recent articles and presentations:
My on-demand webinar with Tasktop’s VP of Product Management, Nicole Bryan, describing a straightforward method for finding your analytic solution and how to adapt the Goal, Question, Metric (GQM) method to development processes, as well as how to avoid “the light is brighter here” analytics anti-pattern.
Join Israel Gat, Director of Cutter Consortium Agile Practice, and me in a workshop that explains mastering the new, integrative framework, to increase the business value of your software and develop better software. This will benefit anyone in your organization who is involved in software and its importance to the business.
Our popular joint article authored by Israel Gat and me titled A New Kind of Software Development Framework, where we describe a new kind of prescriptive framework that is being built now but will emerge as a fully integrative framework in 2016. For a deep dive into better understanding this dichotomy we and numerous Agile/Lean/Kanban/System Thinking practitioners encounter in so many software development engagements, please click here to request your free Cutter trial, and then download Parts I and II of the series Implementing the Integrative Framework:
Part I (Implementing the Integrative Framework – Moving on from Know-how to Know-why), and
Part II (Implementing the Integrative Framework – Scalability) of the series.
My ‘One Size Does Not Fit All’ keynote presentation given at this year’s Software Guru Conference on the New Integrative Framework
In this webinar with David West, Tasktop’s Chief Product Officer, we cover the dimensions of analytics, the key driving principles, analytics maturity, adapting the analytics to your mix of development efforts, and integrating analytics across the levels of the organization.
For those with a Cutter subscription, I delivered this webinar on Modern Lean
A recent briefing on managing software and IT portfolios in the face of uncertainty
A recent briefing on Schedule Prediction
Israel Gat and I presented this briefing on The Economics of Quality at the Consortium on IT and Software Quality (CISQ) conference.
On the IBM DevWorks site, I published an article on Flow Measures for Software
For the Cutter Consortium, I recently published an article on technical liability.
Association for Computing Machinery: Calculating and improving ROI in software and system programs
In our previous Advisor in this series (see “Implementing the Integrative Framework, Part III — Alignment“), we defined a modus for alignment in which the development organization executive (e.g., CTO or VP of development) is responsible for defining overall development…
(This is a duplicate of a posting I made to the Cutter Blog.) Software development is a really a single discipline. What comes under the overall field is a combination of disciplines that address a range of problems: Maintaining and…
One of challenges of sprint planning is settling on a good choice of velocity. One simple, but imprecise and approach uses burn-up charts. A clear explanation of dealing with uncertainty of velocity using burn-up charts can be found late in…
Following up on my previous blog, today my colleague, Israel Gat, and I published a new blog on the Cutter website, describing our recent thoughts on the future of development frameworks. Please click here. We will be describing this at length…
As a senior consultant of the Cutter Consortium, I am asked every December to make my predictions for the following year. The request gives me an opportunity to reflect on the current trends development and project them forward. Israel Gat and…
I have found there is some confusion on this topic. I recently posted a blog to address the confusion on my Cutter Blog,
In a previous post, I promised to continue the discussion of measuring the value of software. I have had several discussions over the last weeks. Many practitioners measure the value of software using intangibles such as strategic alignment. This permits…
I just had a good conversation with Zadia Codabux, a graduate student at Mississippi State University and IBM Graduate Fellow. I am her IBM mentor. Her PhD research is on technical debt. We are trying to make sense of the…
In a previous post, I wrote about lean analytics. I have over the last few weeks written a long article on how to specify and instrument product flow measures for software and systems in the context of DevOps. Today, that…