WELCOME TO MY WEBSITE
This website focuses on my efforts to transform how organizations lead complex development efforts through three guiding principles: Embrace Uncertainty, Think Like an Investor, and Apply Systems Thinking. These principles offer a practical framework for managing risk and value throughout the project lifecycle. Embrace Uncertainty involves viewing unknowns as measurable factors—quantified and monitored using probability and Bayesian reasoning—to guide decision-making. Think Like an Investor considers projects as capital investments, evaluating them by their evolving potential and applying option-style economics to balance risk and reward. Apply Systems Thinking ensures that the solutions delivered have enduring qualities—such as reliability, scalability, maintainability, and adaptability—that support long-term value.
These ideas are detailed in an upcoming book, tentatively titled “Development Economics and Project Control: Managing Uncertainty with Bayesian Thinking,” which I, Glen Alleman, and Christian Smart are co-authoring. They are implemented in the Predictor module in the upcoming release of RiskyProject by the Intaver Institute.
The website will include updates on the releases, planned webinars, and relevant whitepapers
My work is based on development economics , project control and applied probability. You will find whitepapers on these topics by clicking on each category above.
News & Blog Updates
Stay informed with the latest insights on system development, project risk management, and innovation strategies. From practical frameworks to real-world case studies, my blog provides expert perspectives to help you tackle complex development challenges with confidence.
Recent Events
The Intaver Institute will soon release a major update to its RiskyProject platform, including a separately priced module based on Bayesian parameter learning to significantly improve predictions of time-to-complete. I’ve also been sharing the principles of our upcoming book on development economics and project control: I recently recorded an interview with Charles Betz of Forrester Research that will be published on his blog page, and I filmed a YouTube video with Bill Dow that is expected to be released on his channel early next year.
