WELCOME TO MY WEBSITE

This website focuses on my efforts to transform how organizations lead complex development efforts through three guiding principles: Embrace Uncertainty, Think Like an Investor, and Apply Systems Thinking. These principles offer a practical framework for managing risk and value throughout the project lifecycle. Embrace Uncertainty involves viewing unknowns as measurable factors—quantified and monitored using probability and Bayesian reasoning—to guide decision-making. Think Like an Investor considers projects as capital investments, evaluating them by their evolving potential and applying option-style economics to balance risk and reward. Apply Systems Thinking ensures that the solutions delivered have enduring qualities—such as reliability, scalability, maintainability, and adaptability—that support long-term value.  

These ideas are detailed in an upcoming book, tentatively titled “Development Economics and Project Control: Managing Uncertainty with Bayesian Thinking,” which I, Glen Alleman, and Christian Smart are co-authoring. They are implemented in the Predictor module in the upcoming release of RiskyProject by the Intaver Institute. 

The website will include updates on the releases, planned webinars, and relevant whitepapers

 
My work is based on development economics , project control  and applied probability. You will find whitepapers on these topics by clicking on each category above.